Posted By Juan Nagel Share

For years, Venezuela's opposition to Hugo Chávez looked like a bit of a joke. Thanks to unsuccessful attempts to unseat the president (including general strikes, an electoral boycott, and even a coup),  it deservedly earned characterizations like "disorganized," "leaderless," and "self-defeating."

On Sunday, Venezuela's opposition finally got its act together. In a national primary that drew more than 2.9 million voters to the polls (double what was expected), Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles was chosen as the opposition's standard-bearer and leader. (The photo above shows his followers celebrating the win.)

Capriles's victory over four other candidates was impressive: at 62% of the opposition vote, he doubled his nearest rival's tally, earning a strong claim to be the opposition's consensus candidate. Yet the task he faces is a daunting one, for he will have to face the popular, silver-tongued demagogue Chávez in October's presidential elections.

From day one, Capriles has run a general-election campaign, ignoring the more radical elements within the opposition movement. His main message to the voters: "I am electable because I can make inroads with swing voters who once supported Hugo Chávez but who are now looking for an alternative and long for an end to political strife. I am here to work, not to talk or fight."

Capriles's intense message discipline throughout the primary belies a thoughtful approach to the campaign. Realizing that Venezuelans value some of the Bolivarian Revolution's achievements, he tailored his message around reconciliation and inclusion. While vowing to maintain the popular aspects of the government's policies, he promises an end to the bitter partisan politics that have plagued this country for the past 13 years.

The focus of his program is education, one of several areas where Hugo Chávez appears vulnerable. Capriles views it as the key to creating jobs and lowering daunting levels of violence that have made Venezuela one of the most dangerous places in the hemisphere.

Capriles won in a landslide. He won across all income levels, and triumphed in every state except for Zulia, the home state of his closest rival, Governor Pablo Pérez.

Pérez is young and charismatic, but he could not overcome his association with Venezuela's old, discredited parties, which endorsed him. His campaign began late and struggled to find a message that would stick. In a gracious speech Sunday, Pérez heartily endorsed his "brother" Capriles.

The strategy for the Capriles team moving forward is to try and break the emotional bond between lower-middle class sectors and the President. Capriles will attempt to convince voters that a presidency will not mean the end of Chávez's generous social policies, but rather an improvement on them.

He also needs to convince the military that the country would be governable under his stewardship. Hugo Chávez, already in campaign mode, has repeatedly said that none of the other candidates can handle the presidency, and claims that only his victory can ensure stability.

He might have a point. He has created militias loyal only to his political project, and there is no telling how they would respond to a defeat at the polls. As an ex-army officer he also retains a sizeable following among the military proper (and especially among the officers he's promoted to key positions). Less ideological members in the military brass might be skeptical of Capriles's ability to hold the factions at bay and ensure the peace. Finally, the uncertainty surrounding Chávez's cancer -- and his possible successor -- might prompt one of these groups to try and seize power. It is noteworthy that one of the first groups Capriles mentioned in Sunday's victory speech was the Armed Forces.

Capriles faces a monumental task. Even putting aside Chávez's charisma, his war chest is basically the state itself. He has free rein to dip into the public coffers for campaigning and, with oil prices at over $100 a barrel, there is no way Capriles can come close to matching his spending power. And given the president's absolute control over Venezuela's airwaves, there is no way to match his media access either.

In spite of all this, recent head-to-head polls put Capriles within striking distance of the incumbent.

For all his structural advantages, Hugo Chávez now has something he hasn't had in years: an organized opposition, headed by a legitimate, disciplined leader.

JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images

 

FAIR AND BALANCED FREDRICO

3:07 PM ET

February 13, 2012

2002 - CIA subverts democracy again

2002
Venezuela - The CIA attempts to overthrow the democratically elected government of Venezuela. According to intelligence analyst Wayne Madsen, "the CIA provided Special Operations Group personnel, headed by a lieutenant colonel on loan from the U.S. Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to help organize the coup." Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has irritated the U.S. with his 2001 Hydrocarbon Law, which doubles royalties on foreign oil companies and requires a majority government stake in future joint ventures. Soldiers supporting the coup take control of the presidential palace, arrest Chavez and fly him to the Venezuelan island of La Orchil, where he is imprisoned. Businessman Pedro Carmona claims power and, in his first move as president, dissolves the democratically elected National Assembly, the Supreme Court and other key institutions, while arresting Chavez supporters. The U.S. immediately recognizes the Carmona government. However, the coup soon unravels when thousands of anti-coup protesters surround the presidential palace demanding Hugo Chavez's reinstatement. Two days later, Hugo Chavez triumphantly returns to office.

 

ROBERTO N

5:33 AM ET

February 14, 2012

2012 PSF's still defend the undefensible

Fair and balanced Fred sounds just like the Chavistas who are telling themselves 3 million people could not have gone out to vote this past Sunday.

Wake up and smell the cafecito, the people of Venezuela have spoken and they will be heard.

 

SAIRA ALI

12:46 PM ET

March 2, 2012

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Introduction

(Born July 28, 1954, Sabaneta, Barinas, Venez.) Venezuelan politician who became president of Venezuela in 1999. Chávez styled himself as the leader of the “Bolivarian Revolution,” a socialist political program for much of Latin America, named after Simón Bolívar, the South American independence hero. Although the focus of the revolution has been subject to change depending on Chavez's goals, its key elements include nationalism, a centralized economy, and a strong military actively engaged in public projects. His ideology became known to many as simply chavismo.
Early life

Chávez grew up in Sabaneta, a small town in the southwestern plains of Venezuela. He was the second of six surviving children, all boys. His parents, both schoolteachers, did not have enough money to support all their children, so Hugo and his eldest brother, Adán, were raised in the city of Barinas by their grandmother, Rosa Inés Chávez, who instilled in Hugo a love of history and politics.

As a teenager, Chávez was heavily influenced by José Esteban Ruiz Guevara, a local historian, who introduced him to the teachings of Bolívar and Karl Marx, the German philosopher who was one of the fathers of communism, both of which had a profound impact on Chávez's political philosophy. The presence of the National Liberation Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas de Liberación Nacional; FALN), the communist guerrilla insurgency that began fighting the Venezuelan government in the 1960s, also greatly affected Chávez. The FALN was supported by Cuban leader Fidel Castro, who would later become Chávez's political muse.

In 1971 Chávez entered the Venezuelan Military Academy in Caracas, the national capital, not because he wanted to be a soldier but because he dreamed of becoming a professional baseball player, and the academy had good baseball coaches. Chávez planned to enroll there, excel at baseball, and then drop out. But while he was a skilled left-handed pitcher, he was not good enough to play professionally, so he continued his studies. He was a poor and unruly student, however, and ultimately graduated near the bottom of his class in 1975.

Chávez started his military career as a second lieutenant in the army. His first assignment was to capture the remaining leftist guerrillas. But as he pursued the insurgents, Chávez began to empathize with them, seeing them as peasants fighting for a better life. By 1977 Chávez was ready to leave the army in disgust when he discovered that his brother Adán was secretly working with the insurgents. Chávez arranged to meet Douglas Bravo—head of the Venezuelan Revolution Party (Partido de la Revolución Venezolana; PRV), an underground movement, and a former leader of the FALN. “He inspired me and I realized I wouldn't be leaving the army,” Chávez later said of Bravo. In 1982 Chávez and some fellow military officers secretly formed the Bolivarian Movement 200 to spread the insurgents' revolutionary ideology within the military. Their goal was to take power in a civilian-military coup d'état.

Attainment of power

On Feb. 4, 1992, Chávez and a group of military officers led an attempt to overthrow the government of Pres. Carlos Andrés Pérez. Unfortunately for Chávez, the rebellion quickly collapsed. While the other rebel leaders successfully captured their targeted military bases, Chávez was unable to complete the key part of the operation—the capture of President Pérez. Trapped in the Military History Museum near the presidential palace, Chávez realized that it was useless to keep fighting, and he agreed to surrender on the condition that he be allowed to address his coconspirators on national television. Chávez stood in front of the cameras and told his fellow “comrades” that regrettably—“for now,” he said—their goal of taking power could not be accomplished, and he beseeched them to put down their arms to avoid further bloodshed. Chávez spoke for less than two minutes, but this was essentially the beginning of his life as a politician. Many Venezuelans at that time were frustrated with their elected leaders, and they were inspired by Chávez and praised his bold ideas to reform the country. His address became known as the por ahora (“for now”) speech because many people took that specific phrase as a promise that one day Chávez would return.

Chávez was imprisoned without a court ruling for the attempted coup until 1994, when Pres. Rafael Caldera Rodríguez, bowing to Chávez's growing popularity, dropped the charges against him. Chávez then founded the political party Movement of the Fifth Republic (Movimiento de la Quinta República; MVR), enlisting many former socialist activists and military officers. Viewed as an outsider, Chávez was able to capitalize on widespread discontent with Venezuela's established political parties, and in December 1998 he won the presidential election with 56 percent of the vote.

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Transitions is the group blog of the Democracy Lab channel, a collaboration between Foreign Policy and the Legatum Institute.

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