Can Venezuela's Protesters Stay the Course?

"Whoever gets tired loses!" The slogan has been the mantra of Venezuela's protest movement, which has rocked the South American nation for more than a month now. As the protests begin to lose energy, the slogan is also one that rings true, reflecting the real fear that if the opposition protests die down, President Nicolás Maduro will consolidate his power, perhaps irreversibly.

After more than a month of intense protests, Venezuela's opposition continues to hit the streets. The barricades are now less common than they used to be, and the opposition is girding for the long haul by changing their tactics, protesting in a more peaceful, less violent manner. This means fewer barricades and more massive marches that are less likely to be attacked by government forces. (The photo above shows medical students protesting in Caracas.)

The last few weeks have seen the protests decrease in intensity in Caracas and in other cities. But while the barricades and the tear-gas battles that raged in eastern sections of the capital have ebbed somewhat, they are still happening in other cities. This Monday, for example, a TV personality was shot dead when descending from a bus in the city of Los Teques, 23 kilometers south of the capital.

The violence in the western states continues to rage. Also on Monday, a National Guardsmen was shot in the neck while fighting protesters in Mérida, the capital of Mérida state and an epicenter of the protest movement. The death toll now stands at 36, but reporters say that inhabitants of San Cristóbal continue to hunker down.

In Caracas, however, the protests have taken a turn away from barricades and back to large, peaceful marches. One such march was held last Saturday, when hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans marched in support of the students. These marches were matched in other cities around the country.

One of the main reasons why the protests seem to have lost their zeal is the uptick in government repression. Hundreds of student leaders, including many of the organizers of the barricades, have been detained amid allegations of abuse. While the government continues to use both police and paramilitary gangs known as colectivos,  it is now also infiltrating college campuses and even apartment buildings where suspected protesters are believed to be hiding out.

More importantly, the government is also going after local leaders who have not fought the protest movement. Last week, the government arrested the mayor of San Cristóbal (who belongs to the same political party as the imprisoned Leopoldo López) for failing to clamp down on the protests. It did the same with the mayor of a Valencia suburb; in a fast-track trial, he received a 10-month jail sentence, and the Electoral Council has already announced an election will take place to replace him. The government is also threatening the mayors of some of the Caracas boroughs where the protests have been particularly intense.

President Nicolás Maduro himself has said several times that the mayor of Chacao municipality, which is the epicenter of the protests in Caracas, will end up in prison if he does not act against protesters. The pressure shows on the mayor, who seems ambivalent about the protest movement, defending their rights while at the same time clearly wishing they would move somewhere else. As a result of the pressure, the mayor has shown a renewed willingness to do what he can to stop them. The government has instilled a feeling of doubt and fear among local leaders and protesters, and it seems to be working.

In spite of the crackdown, opposition politicians vow to continue pressing the government. For example, opposition legislator Maria Corina Machado travelled to the Organization of American States last week to make the case for Venezuela's dissidents, only to have her efforts quashed by the Venezuelan government and its hemispheric allies. Machado was promptly punished by being stripped of her seat in parliament on questionable grounds. She will likely face jail time, which could inflame the protests anew.

The opposition's case is made easier by the ongoing economic crisis. This Monday, the government began selling currency under a new market-based scheme. The exchange rate under the new system was eight times the official rate applied to imports, which will likely cause a significant spike in inflation.

The combination of repression, deepening economic crisis, and an unabated political conflict spells turmoil for Venezuela in the next few months. Venezuela's protests may have dimmed, but their underlying caue burns brightly still.



Democracy Lab Weekly Brief, March 24, 2014

To catch Democracy Lab in real time, follow us on Twitter: @FP_DemLab.

Alex Gladstein mourns Cameroonian musician Lapiro de Mbanga, one of the most prominent opponents of the country's dictator.

Christian Caryl argues that President Obama deserves more credit for a shrewd move in support of Libya's embattled central government.

Anna Nemtsova finds out how Russians feel about U.S. sanctions, and checks in with Kiev's bad news.

Andrew Foxall and Oren Kessler examine the role of ultra-right-wingers in Ukraine's current government.

Mohamed Eljarh reports on rapidly deteriorating conditions that have pushed Libya to the brink of civil war.

Uzra Khan explains how front-runner Narendra Modi is exploiting the moral and institutional decline of India's private media.

And now for this week's recommended reads:

A group of 65 Middle East experts, former members of Congress, and ex-U.S. diplomats send a letter to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urging increased support from Washington for Tunisia's nascent democracy.

In El País, Spaniards mark the death of Adolfo Suárez, the prime minister who guided their country in its post-Franco transition to democracy.

Writing for the New Republic, Anne Applebaum argues that people-powered movements are overrated.

Writing for the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, Sara Abdel Rahim asks whether Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, widely expected to be Egypt's next president, can claim to represent the interests of the country's women. David D. Kirkpatrick, writing for the New York Times, reports on an Egyptian court's decision to sentence 529 pro-Morsi protesters to death.

In Reuters, Andrew R.C. Marshall argues that Indonesia's pro-democracy decentralization program planted the seeds for today's widespread corruption. Writing for cogitASIA, Derwin Pereira suggests that Indonesia's newly-nominated gubernatorial candidate Joko Widodo might be able to turn the country around.

Human Rights Watch explains why Russia's takeover of Crimea amounts to a military occupation.

A new International Crisis Group report urges Cote d'Ivoire's government to address post-electoral violence in the country's unstable regions before it boils over into full-blown conflict.

In the Wall Street Journal, Victor Ponta, prime minister of Romania, calls for greater economic integration between the United States and Europe in order to build a "transatlantic superpower" capable of reinforcing Western security.

On the Monkey Cage, Turkuler Isiksel explains why Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has a "minimalist" understanding of democracy. (In the photo above, a woman waves the flag of Turkey's ruling party during a pro-Erdogan demonstration.)

OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images